Smirking at the Forecast

It seems that “snowmaggedon” fever has once more reached out and gripped the Twin Cities.  Weird.  Minnesota in February got a lot of snow.  We knew it was coming, because the forecasters told us.  And told us.  And told us some more.

Many people hit the stores in the days preceding the snow event and stocked up.  As the day of the storm came, it seemed that the forecasts of the actual arrival time were off.  The anticipated snow didn’t hit until later than forecast.  I was reading status updates from friends on Facebook that seemed to laugh or scoff at those that had stocked up or prepared.  People asked, “Where’s all the snow we were supposed to get?”  Sarcastic remarks about the forecasters were abundant.  Most of these were in the northern metro.

At the same time, I was reading status updates from other friends in Minneapolis saying they were “getting socked.”  The snow came, alright.  It just didn’t come when it was supposed to and the predictions for less snow in some parts of the metro were accurate.

Sometimes we expect more out of forecasting than is possible.  That goes the same with business forecasting.  It’s not an exact science.  It’s based on trends and information that may or may not be accurate and can be wrong as many times as it is right.  It also can be extremely accurate for one area, but not as accurate for another.  We ignore forecasts at our own peril.  Don’t listen to those that say the forecasters will be wrong.  Prepare your business and, at the worst, you will be ready. 

Remember; just because it isn’t “snowing” in your backyard, doesn’t mean it isn’t coming or someone else isn’t getting it.

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